DAX approaching 12,000 as trade optimism climbs

By Kenny Fisher, Currency Analyst at Market Pulse

It’s been up, up up for the DAX index. Currently, the DAX is at 11,962, up 0.07% on the day. The DAX has soared 3.7% this week, and the index is at its highest level since October 2018. In economic news, German factory orders plunged 4.2%, nowhere near the estimate of 0.3%. The ECB minutes noted that trade tensions continue to weigh on the eurozone economy. On Friday, the U.S. releases wage growth and nonfarm payrolls, so we could see some reaction from the markets.

There is growing optimism with regard to the U.S-China trade talks, which have continued this week in Washington. The sides have made substantial progress, with reports that an agreement between the world’s two largest economies is 90% complete. The outstanding issues include enforcement mechanisms and the removal of trade tariffs. There has been positive news out of China this week, as manufacturing PMI posted a 14-month high, and the China 50 index has climbed to its highest level since March 2018.

German manufacturing numbers continue to point downwards. Factory orders were dismal in February, declining for a fourth successive month. The eurozone’s largest economy has slowed down as a result of the global trade war, with exports and manufacturing particularly hard-hit. Soft global demand could continue, and the Economy Ministry summed up the bleak situation, saying that “manufacturing momentum will continue to be subdued in the coming months, particularly due to lacking external demand”.

Economic Calendar

Thursday (April 4)

  • 2:00 German Factory Orders. Estimate 0.3%. Actual-4.2%
  • 7:30 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

Friday (April 5)

  • 2:00 German Industrial Production. Estimate 0.6%
  • All Day – Eurogroup Meetings
  • 8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 175K
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Rate. Estimate 3.8%

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

DAX, Thursday, April 4 at 8:30 EST

Previous Close: 11,751 Open: 11,855 Low: 11,848 High: 11,927 Close: 11,962

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