EUR: A Dovish ECB Already In The Price; Unlikely To Trigger Renewed EUR Weakness

By SEB via eFXNews

SEB Research discusses its expectations for this week’s ECB April policy meeting on Wednesday.

Dovish with no major changes to policy. The 10 April ECB meeting takes place against a background of continued weak data, but follows the announcement of several dovish measures at the previous 7 March meeting. Therefore, it is too early to expect any significant changes in either policy or communication. The press conference will be closely watched for more details on already presented measures, as well as any new steps which could be taken if the outlook were to worsen. However, we do not expect any concrete changes at this meeting, as the ECB has already promised to announce details on the TLTRO-III at the June meeting, while decisions on new measures such as a possible introduction of a tiered deposit rate system or restarting QE are premature. The general message will be dovish with risks remaining on the downside,” SEB projects. 

Dovish ECB already priced in by FX markets. Given the weakness in the EZ economy and the dovish messages from the ECB at recent meetings, the FX market has already pushed expectations towards a very soft outlook for ECB policy in the coming years. Therefore, it is unlikely that it would trigger renewed EUR weakness if the ECB continues to communicate a similar message at the upcoming meeting. The euro is, however, likely to react positively if there are convincing signs that the EZ economy begins to recover,” SEB adds. 

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