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GBP: Turning Increasingly More Bearish On GBP Medium-Term

Barclays Research discusses GBP outlook and adopts a structural bearish bias, expecting the pair’s to trade lower towards 1.25 by year-end and at 1.22 by Q1 of 2020.

We are turning increasingly more bearish on the GBP because Brexit-induced political and business uncertainty is likely to cap any upside for the pound.

EURGBP will likely further appreciate over the coming quarter as markets re-assess the risks associated with a no-deal Brexit. While we still envision a deal by year-end, our conviction is generally low. The domestic economy is already slowing, as is the previously resilient UK labour market, a view already shared by some MPC members. Moreover, the weak global backdrop is unlikely to provide much support to the pound either and is making the MPC’s current stance hard to justify,” Barclays notes.

Risks to our GBP forecasts skew to the downside and can materialize either from a realisation of a no-deal Brexit or further delays in the process, with associated increased uncertainty related to an early election or second referendum,” Barclays adds.